off the wall

High Rise Buildings in Africa 

"In one township south of Soweto, custom has it that people need to be able to touch the ground in order to stay close to their ancestors -- something impossible from anything other than the bottom floor. Multi-story apartment buildings remain the exception rather than the rule in South Africa and low-cost government housing projects are almost always single-story developments."

Rebels go into the oil business in Libya.  On one hand they may now have a greater stake in stability, in any territory they control/intend to control at least, but it also may be an attempt to gain a source of cash.  Collier's greed v grievance debate comes to mind.

Finally some stability in East DRC?  

"Significantly, it has been pressure from the US, and in particular from the military, where the Rwandans have cultivated many contacts and friends, that has forced Rwanda to stop supporting M23 and stay out. The US even supplied drones to the UN force to patrol the porous border. At the same time the UN peacekeepers have been given a stronger mandate and the training and weapons to go on the offensive. So has the Congolese army, which for years has acted more like just another gang of looters and rapists. Their coordinated attacks on M23 have defeated it."

off the wall

Global trends in resource rich economies.

Samsung hopes to double smartphone sales in Africa

Financing difficulties in tech startups.  Still a small scene, with a lot of obstacles that are not always fully profiled in the glitzy news articles showing off novel African startups.

Glitzy article on African tech startups.

“Africa lags behind in basic infrastructure and it is basic infrastructure that is needed for these services,” the senior VP said. “It is a public private partnership that is needed.”

“It is so uphill in Africa because there are people who do not have clean water. We can’t really go to people and tell them about cars that stop automatically or do need to ever stop at a intersection because they are connected.”  Africa will always lag behind

Africapitalism 

Kenyans are the largest immigrant group from Africa to the US

Global flight paths

Africa still has a long way to go.  Properly implementing the Yamoussoukro Decision and liberalising the industry will go a long way to promoting low cost carriers and boosting traffic.  Some interesting things from the Open Skies for Africa World Bank report:

• The case of Mozambique is an example of the protection of a national carrier resulting in high airfares, in effect hindering the development of tourism. Airfares between Johannesburg and Maputo, Mozambique, were 163 percent more expensive in 2006 than the fares for the same distance flown within South Africa (the example examined was Johannesburg –Darwin).
• The Nairobi–Johannesburg route was initially liberalized in 2000 by agreeing to multiple designations of carriers and increasing daily flights from 4 to 14. The route was then fully liberalized in 2003. Following liberalization, the effect was a 69-fold increase in passenger volumes.

Overall, a study of the SADC region concluded:

"It analyzed price changes on 56 routes within SADC by running various regression analyses. The analyses concluded that air fares on liberalized routes declined by an average of 18 percent. In cases where a low-cost carrier entered the market, air fares were generally 40 percent lower than before liberalization. The overall conclusions of the study, taking the findings of the case studies into account and consolidating the results of all the regressions, was that full liberalization throughout the SADC region would increase passenger volumes by 20 percent."

Fun Fact:  Cape Town - Johannesburg is the busiest route in Africa, and the 10th busiest in the world.  

Assorted Bonds

An amateur, if not impressive stunt worthy of a James Bond film.  Krejčíř, Radovan Krejčíř doesn't role off the tongue as easily as the hero he happily compares himself to (Fleming purposefully chose monosyllabic names for James for this purpose).  Nor does he seem to exude James' charm or moral code.

Investec launches Africa bond fund.  There are some world class African banks, especially in South Africa and Nigeria and it is good to see them linking African bonds to world markets.  Baby steps towards generating a larger secondary bond market for African bonds, vital for financial market development.

Nigerians and Kenyans will find it easier to visit London with the new £3000 visitor bond.  The FT focuses mostly on lost revenue to high end British retailers.  There will be wider reputational damage to Britain too, perhaps more costly in the long run.  It's a pain enough to apply for visa's to the UK and Europe already, this rightly pisses people off and they remember.  Go shopping in Paris instead, it's already beating London for this very reason among the Chinese.       

off the wall

Shenzhen Energy to help build coal plant in Ghana with Ghanian IPP, burning South African coal.  700MW, could be an interesting comparison with Obama's plan over the coming years.

South African defense project.

On China and Russian financing models in Africa.  

Dams in Africa on the rise.  The plan for the Grand Inga Dam seems to be moving, but we'll see.  A lot of attention is given to small scale generation, but Africa is urbanising fast and will need large scale, centrally distributed power, in addition to off grid, or smaller scale schemes that may be more appropriate for rural areas.  People will be displaced, and no doubt there will be some environmental damage, but an economy cannot grow without power (nor is power alone sufficient for growth).

"Their primary beneficiaries are mining companies and aluminium smelters, while Africa's poor have been left high and dry."

Africa needs to beneficiate minerals, and not just export them.  Done right, this creates jobs and potentially has spillover effects that may help boost manufacturing, crucial to sustained growth and moving Africa up the value chain.  Dams provide clean, potentially cheap energy that allows this to happen.          





    

African Literature and African Visa's

If someone didn't say literature granted access to a lifetime of human wisdom, they should have, and hopefully done so more eloquently than me.  Visa's also grant access, perhaps to the more mundane*, so here is a post on both.  

(*not always - shameless earthporn from Namibia and Madagascar.)

Tope Folarin wins Caine prize for African writing.  Perhaps more for (African) writers identity is important/relevant to who they are given their business, but a piece that reflects more broadly on African identity.  I wonder if there is a greater expectation, especially by those outside Africa, that African writers reflect their 'Africanness' in some way in their works, as a theme, setting, or in their characters and if such a link is not there the work is somehow not as capable of saying something wider about the human condition.  I actually know very little about literature, African or other sadly, but I am reminded of Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie who said, perhaps unfairly targeting Americans:

"Americans think African writers will write about the exotic, about wildlife, poverty, maybe Aids. They come to Africa and African books with certain expectations. I was told by a professor at Johns Hopkins University that he didn't believe my first book because it was too familiar to him. In other words, I was writing about middle-class Africans who had cars and who weren't starving to death, and therefore to him it wasn't authentically African."

Visa's in Africa

It's bad enough getting a visa for the US, UK or Europe but there are too many visa's need for travel around Africa.  It hampers growth and inhibits much needed regional integration.   

"On average, African citizens require visas to visit 60 per cent of African countries – ranging from a high of 84 per cent for Somalia to a low of 41 per cent for The Gambia."

Meanwhile, it is very easy for a Brit to come to Africa, slightly trickier for an American though at under 50% visa free or VOA.  It should be easy for anyone to come to Africa and move around.  The planned new single visa for Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda should be welcomed and hopefully can demonstrate the benefits of a more streamlined system.     

  

Africa: last bastion of IE - slightly embarrassing

Off the wall

Chinese soft power in Tanzania

Cites in Africa have a huge role to play if there is to be any African century.  Important traits of influential cities.

Interesting piece on an African false rise, don't fully agree with everything as there are a lot of good numbers out there that do suggest a break from the past.  Nonetheless, come real concerns, especially a very valid one about the poor state of manufacturing in Africa.

"The image of an African man with a mobile phone does not in any way reflect a rising Africa at a time the continent grapples with rising unemployment, deplorable living conditions, with the majority of the population living on less than a dollar in a day."

A carbon tax is certainly not a bad idea, how applicable for a developing country that is deeply locked into coal is another.  The South African National Treasury is a first rate institution and phased in and with proper use of the revenues gained it might actually work, but needs to happen alongside other reforms.  Topic for a full post sometime I think.    

The Ambassador

I watched this while ago, definitely worth tracking down. Ballsy and controversial, occasionally funny even if the humour is perhaps less than nuanced in its understanding of Africa (intentions of the film aside) the documentary follows a European who attempts to buy diamonds as a Liberian diplomat (the Liberians were not pleased after it was released).  It presents a very sinister side of Africa - and although things have been improving, I think there is some truth to this and a reminder of how bad some places do seem to be and do still live up to 1960's stereotypes of banana republics.  I don't know enough, but I wonder if this is worse in French Africa (there are some interesting French characters in the film) - not that there are no Brits doing similar wheeling and dealing.

Here's an interview with the director, aptly named Mads Bruggers.

  

Coups in Africa

Let's not kid ourselves, Egypt did experience a coup last night.  All coups are not necessarily bad, it's not obvious that last night's falls into this category though - time will tell.  How has Africa been doing on the coup front though?  The graph below highlights coups in Africa since 1960 (from Systemic Peace's database).  Small negative trend for all attempted coups.  However, it was interesting to see the 1990's as the decade with the highest number of coup attempts (55 - although maybe it was just harder to fully track attempted coups in the 60's and 70's in all the world's far flung banana republics), and the naughties the lowest (29).  Perhaps the end of the Cold War had something to do with this as foreign powers retreated slightly from the continent.  Hopefully things are starting to settle, but 29 is still too high.

*Egypt and Libya in 2011 were not counted as coups - they were classified as a loss of authority/resignation and change of power after armed conflict respectively.

Looking at successful coups by decade in Africa, there is a substantial decrease, 15 in the 1990's (despite the highest number of attempts) and only 7 in the 2000's, down from 21 successful coups in the 1960's.  Crudely put, in the 1960's over 50% of coups were successful, while last decade less than 25%.  Decreasing chances of success probably further help to reduce coup attempts, as plotters are less willing to take a chance - especially for those plotters that are motivated by economic rents (greed) and not political gripes (grievances - see Collier).

Off the wall

Surveillance and life in a dictatorship from a reddit comment and when Harry met Sally have an interesting overlap.  Harry met Sally reference at 9.55

pics - locally built Ugandan skatepark 

Supply meets demand, always.  Legalising the Rhino horn trade is probably the best way out of the tragedy that is occurring in South Africa, and a way to make some bucks.  Every society has its silly beliefs, and as they modernise they do grow out of most of them but it could still be a while before China and parts of South-East Asia realise that some rhino horn is not a sure-fired recipe for a good night in the sack.     

Obama in Africa: his neglect, the shadow of China and the Power Africa initiative

Obama has just finished his trip to Africa and has received lot of attention here, and also worldwide – perhaps more so than some of his other travels – mostly because of the rarity of the visit, the health of Mandela and perhaps even the increasing attention the continent is getting as the next big thing, however true that may be. Much of the reporting has had an 'about time' theme to it, especially from African journalists, who reflect some local sentiment in lamenting his neglect of the continent in his first term, and the lack of any major initiative – which we now have. Much of the reporting has also drawn parallels with China's engagement with Africa, many times combining the two themes of US neglect with China's active engagement and, if at least implicitly, weaving into a backdrop of a changing global order and Africa as a coveted ally and battleground. A lot of this is misplaced, there is a tendency to get a little over-excited here in Africa about a changing global order, in part because we have been flattered by China's attention and it feels good to be acknowledged as having a role to play. Things are changing, but probably a little slower than often expressed and the entire China story still has to run its course. Also, much of this is misplaced because the US still has a role to play in Africa and does seem to enjoy support that is perhaps not always commensurate with the changing trade statistics that show Africa's huge shift to China. Nonetheless, China has changed the way the US is seeing Africa, and that is reflected in the shape of the new power initiative.

Firstly, on Obama's seeming neglect, it is hard to blame him really.  For one he has always carefully managed his identity in US politics by not making a big thing out of it, or using it very judiciously to select groups and only then to tell a very specific story that is not threatening to other voter groups, especially white Americans. It was always going to be difficult for him to come straight off the bat in the first year or two with some African initiative lest he scare people about exactly where his loyalties lied – perhaps absurd, but there are some scary people who oppose him and whose followers are equally scary. I do not pretend to be an expert on US politics, but I imagine had he touted some policy encouraging African immigration to the US as a means of development (economic arguments better than the political), Donald Trump would be more than riled up. Identity politics was probably a minor reason however; he also had wars to end, the Arab Spring and an economy to save and he was never going to be re-elected on a non-immediate foreign policy achievement. Let's not drive him too hard on this issue then, he is here now, fresh into his second term and his power initiative could be promising, caveats later.

The other focus on the reporting has been making comparisons with China. This is perfectly natural, China's expansion into Africa has been rapid this last decade. But there are some big issues on that front and China is grappling with the consistency's of its own policies and trying to win public support from an at time suspicious local populace. The graph below is interesting, although the data is old (2008, weighted), it is still revealing how equal, and overall slightly ahead the US is compared to China in public perceptions, despite the much larger role China plays in most economies relative to the US. This is from the Afrobarometer survey, and only shows those answering at the most positive extreme – but other categories were roughly similar; 30% in each country had no opinion. A recent Gallup poll highlighted the US' popularity in Africa too.

To say that his trip is about playing catch up or is a reaction to Chinese expansion is tenuous. The US wants different things from Africa (not raw materials, although arguably allies) and it still has much prestige and soft power to draw on. The world order has not changed so much that there is a zero-sum game amongst great powers that allows only one major bilateral relationship. Nonetheless, the shape of the initiative that Obama has chosen to pursue is interesting in its departure from the humanitarian agenda's of past Presidents, and the governance agenda of Western agencies that has dominated development engagements recently. It is infrastructural and focused on trade, not dissimilar to the Chinese model that has won it many favours in Africa. Perhaps China's use of such a model inspired him, or perhaps it is just a focus he wants to pursue given the impact it could have – indeed there is a great need for power in Africa, with many development gains on offer (both macro and micro – Dinkleman has an interesting paper on this.)

There are many types of power though, and it is not clear exactly where the Power Africa initiative will aim to strike the balance. Reading the White House factsheet, there does seem a focus on a variety of projects, that include clean and renewable (technology intensive) solutions that are both large and small in scale. Given Obama came very close to vetoing the World Bank loan to South Africa for the Medupi Coal Power Plant (the largest dry-cooled plant in the world, turning some of the world's dirtiest coal into gaseous form – like many great economic transformations before it), it is hard to imagine these types will be on offer. Which is a pity.  This is not to say that there is no room for the technologically cool and exciting small-scale, renewable projects many Western consultants will enthusiastically write up, but Africa needs cheap and reliable base load power. And we have the fossil fuels on hand to match it. Centralised (electrical) power is almost always more efficient and cheaper, and while with grid power comes grid responsibility (to paraphrase the equally inspirational Ben Parker), it is arguably easier than micro-managing and maintaining smaller sites. It requires a grid, and expertise – which many African states have, at least centrally located, and this is infrastructure we will need if we are ever going to transform into an industrial society and enjoy the wealth that it offers. For this though, $7bn is no where near the almost $400bn the AfDB estimates Africa needs for infrastructure. It is a start and the trade and infrastructure based nature of it should be welcomed, but Africa must ensure that the best development gains are honestly appraised and realised and that the initiative does not descend into pet projects of development practitioners and the American clean energy industry who ignore the economic development – environment trade off that sadly does currently exist.

Selected Quotes

Two generations later President Kennedy became the first Catholic to head the nation; but how many men of ability had, before 1961, been denied the opportunity to contribute to the nation's progress because they were Catholic, or of Irish extraction? How many sons of Italian or Jewish or Polish parents slumbered in slums-untaught, unlearned, their potential lost forever to the nation and human race? Even today, what price will we pay before we have assured full opportunity to millions of Negro Americans?

 - Robert Kennedy, Speech at UCT, on the ominous day of 6/6/66

So long as parts of Africa continue to be ravaged by war and mayhem, opportunity and democracy cannot take root. Across the continent, there are places where too often fear prevails. From Mali to Mogadishu... From Congo to Sudan, conflicts fester -- robbing men, women and children of the lives that they deserve. In too many countries, the actions of thugs and warlords and drug cartels and human traffickers hold back the promise of Africa, enslaving others for their own purposes.

- President Obama, Speech at UCT, less ominous day of 30/06/13

                

Off the wall

China having to respond to consumer demand and desires in Uganda

African developers at Google I/O 2013 and their apps

It will be interesting to see how the market for African debt evolves given the 'Africa rising' debate and the increasing concern about repayment of Eurobonds and wider debt sustainability as QE winds down.  For now, bonds are still oversubscribed but Stiglitz and Rashid mention how private lenders can have poor assessments of debt risks.  A decline in QE might actually result in better pricing of risk.